The Establishment of the Hydrate Survey Prediction Model in the Plateau Permafrost Area Based on the Logistic Regression Method
natural gas hydrate; logistic regression method; the plateau permafrost area; Muli area
（1）资源开发与利用 > 6. 非常规天然气地质与开发
摘要录用
炎 彭 / 中国地质科学院地球物理地球化学勘查研究所
Since natural gas hydrate(NGH) was firstly drilled in 2008 in the Muli area of Qinghai, China, a large amount of geophysical and geochemical survey work has been carried out in this area. A large amount of geophysical and geochemical information has been obtained. However, the regularity of the NGH enrichment has always been unclear, it is difficult to locate the NGH reservoir based on these information. In our work, we summarized the geophysical, geochemical and geological data obtained in the area. The favorable identification characteristics of the NGH reservoirs have been analyzed. Moreover, the prediction variable conversion rules of these favorable information has been given. We made predictions based on the logistic regression method. The results show that the high favorable area we predicted and the drilling of the NGH in line matched very well. And the drilling of the non-drilling NGH is basically located in the low favorable area, so the algorithm is practical.