390 / 2022-05-01 16:31:36

Logistic Curve Hypothesis and Verification of Economic Development and Cumulative Carbon Emissions

economic development, cumulative carbon emissions, carbon peak and carbon neutralization, time series, logistic growth model

（3）能源与可持续绿色发展 > 4. 绿色能源消费与可持续发展

ABSTRACT: Since the industrial revolution, human beings have created huge wealth and caused unprecedented climate change, which has seriously restricted the sustainable development of society. The Chinese government has solemnly promised to achieve the dual-carbon goal. Through literature review, practical judgment and theoretical analysis, this paper believes that in the whole process of economic development, the dependence of economic development on carbon emissions first increases and then gradually decreases. Based on this, a new research hypothesis is proposed : there is a Logistic curve relationship between economic development and cumulative carbon emissions. This paper selects GDP and time as two indicators to measure the stage of economic development, and conducts empirical analysis based on panel data such as GDP, time and consumption of major energy products at the provincial level in China. The results show that : from 1995 to 2019, with the continuous development of economy, the cumulative carbon emissions in China ' s provincial scale show an obvious Logistic growth law in time series, which is also related to the long-term implementation of goal-oriented macro-control in terms of economic growth and carbon emission limitation by the Chinese government. In addition, this paper contributes a method to grasp the inflection point of carbon peak and predict future total carbon emissions.