Manufacturing is the industry in China that consumes the most energy and emits the most carbon, of which emission reduction effect largely determines the process of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. This study analyzes the direct carbon emissions and carbon emissions from final demand in China’s manufacturing sector, and decomposes the carbon emissions from final demand into six independent parts using input-output analysis. Furthermore, this study analyzes the carbon emission path in manufacturing production activities, as well as the sensitivity analysis and scenario prediction of the factors impacting manufacturing carbon emissions. The results show that the direct carbon emissions and carbon emissions from final demand were respectively about 4.61 billion tons and 3.50 billion tons in 2018. Indirect spillovers and direct spillovers account respectively for 62.1% and 23.1% of the carbon emissions from final demand in the manufacturing industry. The direction and quantity of carbon emission transfer from various energy sources may be properly located using the manufacturing industry’s carbon emission transfer route map. The CR scenario shows that the manufacturing industry will reach the peak of carbon from 2025 to 2030, with the corresponding peak between 4.02-4.06 billion tons, and carbon emissions in 2060 will be reduced by 40% compared with 2018.

Manufacturing industry; Input-output analysis; Carbon emission decomposition; Scenario prediction