In order to improve the lifting efficiency of the green development level of industrial enterprises, this paper classifies 458 industrial enterprises and fits the green development performance index of various industrial enterprises (GDI) from 2011 to 2019 based on the performance system of green development of enterprises. The external shock variable is introduced to make in-sample prediction of various indexes. Through the comparative analysis with the growth rate of net green GDP (EDP), explore the sensitivity of green development of various industrial enterprises to external impact, and select appropriate policy implementation targets. Further, the out-of-sample prediction is made by using the lag period of the index, and the policy implementation time point is identified according to the decline point and the decline extent. The research results show that, first, the overall green development level of Chinese industrial enterprises shows an upward trend from 2011 to 2019, but the fluctuation is repeated and sharp. Based on the fluctuation trend and time point, it is found that the overall GDI fluctuation is mainly affected by the push GDI, and the push industrial enterprises should be regarded as the starting point to improve the overall green development level of Chinese industrial enterprises. Second, the overall GDI is sensitive to external shocks, and the impact cycle of policy shocks is longer. Push GDI is neither sensitive nor insensitive to external shocks, and the impact of market shocks is more durable. Based on this, it is considered that the green development of non-driving industrial enterprises is vulnerable to the influence of external environment, and the influence of current policies is more significant. Therefore, it is necessary to improve their anti-risk ability to ensure the rise of lower limit of the green development level of the whole industrial enterprises. Third, from 2019 to 2022, the green development level of overall Chinese industrial enterprises shows a rising trend. Compared with the push industrial enterprises, the fluctuation is more inertial, but the fluctuation range is gradually reduced compared with the previous fluctuation pattern.

Industrial Enterprises; External Shocks; Index Prediction; Sensitivity Analysis