Has the stress on China's carbon market been released? A consideration of national and pilot carbon market stress index construction
ID:383 View Protection:ATTENDEE Updated Time:2022-05-20 10:17:41 Hits:656 Invited speech

Start Time:2022-05-26 16:40 (Asia/Shanghai)

Duration:30min

Session:[S3] Energy and Sustainable Green Development » [S3-1] Energy and Sustainable Green Development-1

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Abstract
Abstract: With the establishment of the carbon market of China, it is important to comprehensively measure the market stress. This paper constructs a new stress measurement system of carbon market from the perspective of trading, emissions reduction and external shocks, and then simulates the stress indices of national and pilot carbon markets through functional data analysis and CRITIC dynamic weighting. We find that first, the overall stress of the carbon market is in the shape of “W”, with frequent fluctuations and an upward trend, and the peak and valley values gradually increasing over time, with a range of [0.3-0.5]. At present, the stress is still at a high level, and there is no downward trend. The stress of Hubei, Beijing and Shanghai carbon market fluctuates and rises while the stress in Guangdong carbon market decreases. In addition, stress in Hubei and Guangdong carbon market is relatively small, indicating that a larger trading size can significantly release the market stress. Moreover, carbon market stress mainly comes from trading stress, followed by emissions reduction stress. The stress from external shocks is relatively small. Furthermore, from the characteristics of stress fluctuation, Guangdong and Beijing carbon market are more prone to “big waves” and are more sensitive to big events, while Hubei and Shanghai carbon market are relatively insensitive. Finally, the pilot markets are divided into stress-driven and stress-release market by stage, and the type of which keeps change in different period. Based on the findings, it believes that energizing trading and improving emissions reduction efficiency is an effective way to release stress.
Keywords
Carbon market;Stress index;FDA –CRITIC empowerment;emissions reduction stress
Speaker
Lingyun HE
China University of Mining and Technology

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